War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with major political parties banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in exile.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".