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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the biggest shock.

But this year's field is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. During an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still