Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
